The defiance by Media Companies has been almost as bad as the defiance by Media Members. But while the latter may be so in love with their love for themselves and their shear perfection of form, the former may be finally starting to understand just how screwed it is.
Media Stocks took a beating yesterday. Today there’s questioning among Media Investors whether that’s a slight bump or the beginning. Most of the differences of opinion can be traced back to how “stuck” individuals are with their Media Investments. Those locked up with their Investments are still acting more locked-in on Media Companies having bright futures. Those with mobility of their portfolios see this as just the start of troubled times.
They can trace their attitude right to Comcast and its acknowledgement yesterday that they’ve never faced competition this tough. I’ve said many times. You can’t compete with free. And that’s what Media Companies are trying to do.
If the Software and Music Industries are any indication the Media Giants are looking at losses in business of no less than 30% and probably closer to half. Media Companies will fold or be absorbed. Those who make it will, like the Software and Music Industries, do so because they find ways to work with “Free” Media. By Free, I’m not talking about Commercial-Supported Television and Radio. I’m talking about all of the new Media Outlets including Hobby Farms and tiny, niche offerings.
Until the Media Industry can make days last longer than 24 hours there’s nothing they can do about the millions of new entrants. All of those 100s, 1000s and millions of nibbles at Audience Viewing Times add up to gigantic bites out of Monster Media. And that doesn’t account for Foreign Competition.
On the one hand the Market for Media is now truly Global which makes it 10 to 25 times larger for these Media Companies. They obviously have to compete with Media in those Countries many of whom are now also competing on the home turf of Companies like FOX, Disney, Comcast/NBC, CBS and even AT&T/Time Warner. But that’s competition they can account for.
It’s all of those others they can’t. And those others are getting and building Audiences who like what they have to offer. It’s the same math problem the Software and Music Industries couldn’t beat. Major Media won’t either. Even if all those little independent and niche operators only drew a few thousand Viewers a day, it adds up to big numbers. Numbers coming directly out of Major Media’s Business.
Adele started on Facebook. Lots of Top Recording Artists did similar things. That’s what Major Media is dealing with. Quality. Yeah there’s alot of junk among that “small” Media. But there’s alot of junk in Major Media too. People have complained about it for years. There’s also alot of really good stuff among those small Media operators. And much of it is very appealing to small niche Audiences. Audiences who now have less and less need for Big Media offerings.
So why would they pay for them?
And that is what Comcast admitted yesterday. That the Subscriber Video they counted on isn’t going to work out like many thought it would.
There’s just way too much competition. Way too much that is, unless you’re a Consumer of Media. For Audiences lots of options, especially when it forces Big Media to be price conscious, is a good thing.